Future Business Tech2021.11.30---2050 年的世界：20 大未來技術

0:00 In 2050, the world will look dramatically different due to 0:03 significant technological advancements. For example: 0:06 1. The World’s First Artificial General Intelligence Is Close To Becoming A Reality 0:10 By 2050, major tech companies have already launched official projects to develop 0:16 the world’s first artificial general intelligence. Billions of dollars 0:20 are invested in these projects and large full-time staff are dedicated to this effort. 0:24 These highly complex projects are expected to take anywhere from 10 to 20 years to complete. 0:30 Scientists and engineers are figuring out how to model factors such as: 0:34 • Intentional creativity • Strategic thinking 0:36 • Emotions • Casual reasoning 0:38 • Common sense • Counter-factual thinking 0:41 • Consciousness 0:42 The immediate use case is to have a self-aware AI that institutions can 0:46 consult with to solve problems that were previously thought impossible. 0:50 Another use case involves transferring copies of this AI 0:53 to advanced humanoid robots that can handle a variety of situations in the real world. 0:58 A small percentage of the world opposes this and there’s constant backlash 1:02 on the internet, but that was to be expected. 1:05 This development is projected to lead to technologies that are indistinguishable from magic 1:10 in the coming decades—especially when combined with the exponentially growing computational power 1:14 of classical and quantum computers. However, it leaves the door open to a super-intelligent AI 1:21 being developed by the end of the century. And there’s no feasible limit to how intelligent this 1:25 AI can become. Such an AI could be smarter than all humans that have ever lived on planet earth. 1:31 Shortly afterward, it could become trillions of times more intelligent than that. 1:35 2. Human-Like Robots Are Emerging In 2050, robots have the ability to 1:40 master real-world environments and an increasingly diverse range of 1:44 3D objects. Although earlier robots were limited to fixed movements, 1:48 this new generation has more dexterity and flexibility. They can adapt to new situations 1:53 and solve more and more dynamic problems. And they can learn from their experiences and share 1:58 knowledge with each other because of wireless internet speeds thousands of times faster 2:03 than 6G and the exponentially growing amounts of data being gathered from their sensors. 2:08 These robots can identify objects, situations, and the actions they 2:12 should perform next in near real-time, which enables a more human-like response. 2:16 Although a few technological and scientific hurdles still remain, 2:20 this is getting close to what people many would consider artificial general intelligence. 2:24 The most advanced robots are restricted to government, corporate, and research 2:28 institutions and the households of the rich and famous. In addition to cognitive abilities, 2:33 these more advanced robots have extremely lifelike appearances, 2:36 facial expressions, and body language. Thanks to continuous emotional feedback from users 2:41 and techniques such as motion capture and generative adversarial networks, 2:45 these robots almost look and act like real people. And as more data is provided to these robots, 2:50 their body language and movements become more natural with each generation. 2:54 3D printed bones, and new materials developed for more flexible skin and muscles, eyes, 2:59 and teeth help to make the humanoid robots appear as human as possible. 3:03 Additionally, less advanced models are now relatively common in society. They’re popular 3:08 among people in upper-middle income brackets and they’re similar in cost to a second car 3:13 or a similar major purchase. Their functions include household chores such as cleaning, 3:18 cooking, and tidying, as well as looking after children and elderly family members. 3:22 3. Smart Cities Are Emerging In Some Regions 3:26 In 2050, a small percentage of cities in some regions have become smart cities. 3:31 These smart cities connect vehicles on the road to a central network that tracks 3:35 their locations in real-time. These types of networks receive terabytes of information from 3:39 a huge number of sources such as road sensors, traffic lights, and so forth. 3:44 Those sources provide information such as the number of cars on the roads, 3:48 road blockages, weather patterns, the state of emergency services, and more. 3:52 Autonomous vehicles on roads constantly communicate and coordinate with each other 3:56 to optimize the flow of traffic in these cities. Thanks to this coordinated information exchange, 4:01 traffic congestion and jams have become much less severe in large cities. 4:05 Autonomous vehicles ride behind each other at a distance of only 20 centimeters, 4:10 which saves space on the road. And due to this coordination, autonomous vehicles make turns 4:14 at intersections at almost full speed with a low probability of accidents occurring. 4:19 Manually parking vehicles is a thing of the past for owners of autonomous vehicles. 4:23 Autonomous vehicles can be programmed to drop their owners off somewhere 4:26 and then search for the cheapest, available parking spots within a city. 4:30 At a designated time, vehicles return and pick up their owners. 4:34 Autonomous vehicles can also be remotely controlled using virtual reality devices. 4:39 This helps in unique situations that AI isn’t able to handle on its own 4:43 such as sudden natural disasters. 4:45 And autonomous vehicle sharing has become a booming industry, 4:48 which has disrupted companies like Uber and Lyft. 4:51 4. Brain-Computer Interfaces Have Improved By Orders Of Magnitude 4:55 In 2050, brain-computer interfaces have vastly improved over the versions from 2030 5:00 and they’re largely usable for everyday purposes. Headbands and wrist bands with non-invasive 5:04 sensors have become the preferred choices for mainstream brain-computer interface use. 5:09 These interfaces are usually standard accessories for virtual reality headsets 5:13 including high-priced VR helmets that offer full dive VR experiences. 5:17 And some brain-computer interfaces are fully implantable for medical and military purposes. 5:22 Brain-computer interfaces now offer a bidirectional exchange of information. 5:26 These advanced neural interfaces send waves to the brain, transmitting visual, 5:30 audio, and other sensations to the user. The images and experiences 5:34 generated by these devices are almost indistinguishable from reality, 5:38 and they’re unique to each user because they depend on the structure of the brain. 5:42 When it comes to entertainment, people can use brain-computer interfaces to control 5:45 objects in video games and virtual environments with high reasonable accuracy. For example, 5:50 this feature is particularly relevant in the latest Star Wars game where you play as Jedis 5:54 and Siths with force abilities. And in the latest Matrix game where you can play as The One. 5:59 Additionally, these devices allow people in VR games and experiences 6:03 to communicate with each other using relatively simple thoughts. However, 6:07 it will take a few more decades before this feature is refined. 6:11 5. Bionic Eyes Are Perfected In 2050, artificial retinas 6:16 and other visual prostheses can match the visual quality of a real human eye. 6:20 They contain electrode arrays with hundreds of megapixels in full color 6:25 along with wireless capabilities. This is a substantial step up from devices in earlier 6:29 decades that provided black-and-white and highly pixelated views of the world. 6:34 Some versions of these implants not only provide a cure to blindness for many people, but they also 6:38 contain further enhancements. These enhancements include embedded cameras, WiFi, augmented reality, 6:44 night vision, thermal vision, zoom capability, and so on. When someone is using these devices, 6:50 it's possible to wirelessly communicate with them using text overlayed in their vision. 6:56 These enhanced devices are standard practice among spy organizations, militaries, and high-profile 7:01 citizens. However, they’re becoming inexpensive enough for the mainstream public as well. Healthy 7:07 adults are now tempted to take advantage of the improvements offered by computerized vision. 7:12 The main downsides are privacy and security concerns. Some government 7:17 and corporate sources indicate that these devices 7:19 could potentially expose a high number of government and corporate scandals. 7:23 6. Two Space Elevators Have Been Built In 2050, two space elevators have been built 7:29 and they’re the largest engineering projects ever undertaken. China and the Obayashi Corp., 7:35 a global construction firm based in Tokyo, Japan committed to building 7:39 their own space elevators more than three decades ago and that vision has come to life. 7:45 These space elevators are planet-to-space transportation systems that each have a cable 7:49 anchored to the earth’s surface and extending into space. This design permits an elevator 7:55 to travel along the cable directly into orbit, without the use of large rockets. 7:59 They’re located near the earth’s equator and the competing forces of gravity and outward 8:03 centrifugal force hold up the cables under tension. The material used to create the cables 8:08 are carbon nanotubes, which is lightweight and hundreds of times stronger than steel. 8:13 These space elevators are frequently being used by institutions to deliver cargo into space 8:18 and return cargo to the earth. They’re also capable of transporting astronauts 8:22 and tourists to low-orbit space stations. Each space elevator cost almost $10 billion to build. 8:28 However, they made this money back in savings after transporting only a few payloads. That’s 8:33 because transporting cargo with space elevators is less than 1% of the cost when using rockets. 8:39 7. VR Glasses Are Replacing Smartphones 8:42 Virtual reality Headsets now have 16k resolution and they’re reduced in size so much 8:47 that they resemble goggles or glasses. And they have multiple display modes. 8:51 Those display modes include the following: • The Augmented Reality mode allows the lenses 8:55 to be transparent so that you can view holograms • The Mixed Reality mode allows the lenses to 9:00 be transparent as well so that you can view hyper-realistic virtual objects in the real world 9:04 that seem to obey the laws of physics • The Virtual Reality mode has an opaque 9:08 coat of silver over the glasses so that you can fully-immerse in a virtual world 9:13 In the augmented and mixed reality modes, you can view a smart stream where you can manipulate 9:19 multiple apps and files using your brain activity. 9:22 It’s because of these features that VR glasses are considered the next 9:25 step of evolution after smartphones. However, many people continue to prefer smartphones. 9:31 VR and augmented reality contact lens is another area that is gradually being adopted. 9:36 8. Mars Has A Permanent Human Presence 9:39 In 2050, a permanent team of scientists and robotics engineers is present on Mars. 9:44 SpaceX is leading much of this effort. And the first civilian tourists have also arrived. 9:49 Significant innovation in autonomous robotic mining systems was required before the first 9:54 human set foot on Mars. Autonomous mining robots mine for and create water. Autonomous 10:00 robots also extract hydrogen from the water to create hydrogen-based fuel. 10:04 And satellites containing solar panels orbit Mars provide energy to the Mars base as well. 10:10 This base will soon be expanded with additional facilities providing more energy, food production, 10:15 recycling systems, mining equipment, and other tools. Vehicles are supplied as well, 10:20 enabling scientists to roam hundreds of miles. More sophisticated long-term bases are now 10:25 being planned to accommodate larger teams of personnel, tourists, and corporate interests. 10:30 The habitat modules are constructed partially underground, giving protection from the Sun's 10:35 ultraviolet rays. Radiation-absorbing materials based on nanotechnology are also 10:40 used in spacesuits and the exterior of vehicles. These same materials block particles of dust, 10:46 providing long-term protection against the environment outside. 10:49 Mars colonization is profitable because of the sales of intellectual property rights to Earth, 10:54 the mining for valuable metals on Mars, and the ongoing mining of asteroids in the asteroid belt 10:59 between Mars and Jupiter. Space mining is a significant consideration because the amount 11:04 of money that corporations can make from it is in the trillions. And the minerals in 11:08 these asteroids hold mineral wealth equivalent to about $100 billion for every individual on Earth. 11:15 9. Augmented And Mixed Reality Is Everywhere Entire cities have turned into augmented 11:20 reality zones, which can be experienced by using augmented reality glasses, lenses, 11:25 or other devices. Location-specific augmented reality overlays are created by corporations 11:30 and individual creators. Urban landscapes are filled with information of all types, 11:35 which can be filtered as needed using augmented reality apps. 11:39 Price tags in stores, menus in restaurants, 11:42 and schedules at public transportation stops have all become virtual. 11:45 It’s also become common to use augmented reality to access navigation from one location to another, 11:51 get reviews for nearby institutions, 11:53 and view notable 3d animations and videos of past events at certain locations. 11:58 10. Hyperloop Tunnels Are Enabling Faster International Travel 12:02 The hyperloop concept usually involves passenger pods traveling through pressurized tubes using 12:08 electric propulsion and magnetic levitation. Cargo is also transported considerably faster 12:14 than before with this method. Hyperloop pods travel at speeds between 600 and 12:19 700 miles per hour. They also reduce transit-related greenhouse gas emissions 12:24 by 90%. And due to the time they save, they provide economic benefits 12:28 totaling over a trillion dollars every year when compared to previous transportation methods. 12:34 Over a dozen domestic hyperloop tunnels were finalized by the early 2030s. Now, 12:40 tunnels have been built to allow high-speed transportation between multiple countries. 12:45 This development created a boom in the tourism industry. This development is also disrupting 12:50 the air and rail travel industries. However, the widespread introduction of supersonic aircraft 12:56 in the early 2030s for long-distance traveling is mitigating the effects of this disruption. 13:02 11. Video Games Are Becoming Hyper Realistic In 2050, video games are photorealistic. 13:09 Advancements in game engines and world-building software make it easier and faster than ever for 13:14 game studios and independent creators to build large and realistic virtual worlds. Cities within 13:19 these worlds are fully explorable in terms of shops, office spaces, and most other types of 13:24 interiors. Likewise, an entire forest can now be rendered with sub-millimeter precision, 13:30 showing unique and random features such as individual leaf marks and insect bites. 13:35 Non-playable characters in video games can generate and sustain natural, 13:40 nuanced, and indefinite conversations. This is thanks to language models and 13:44 deep-learning algorithms in the cloud that are many orders of magnitude 13:48 more advanced than the GPT-3 model from the early 2020s. 13:53 Advanced character builders make it relatively easy to build hundreds of unique, 13:57 non-playable characters at a time that each have unique personalities and life stories. 14:02 Generative adversarial networks (GANs) can generate an almost infinite variety of each 14:06 physical attribute such as faces, hair, body types, and clothing. This is made possible 14:12 because of enormous amounts of visual data fed to these neural networks. This technique also 14:17 improves character gestures, expressions, and actions, making them more fluid and lifelike. 14:22 At this stage, character animations aren’t 100% realistic yet, but they’re incredibly close. 14:27 And increasingly, video games are being created using real locations as their environments. 14:33 12. AI Can Outperform Humans In Most Occupations 14:36 In 2050, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a majority of professions. 14:41 AI software can outmatch humans in white-collar jobs involving constructing company reports, 14:47 market research, and most administrative functions. In some scenarios, 14:51 they can also write screenplays, make music, write novels, and more. 14:56 AI robots can outmatch humans in jobs such as security guards, 15:00 forklift drivers, chefs, and warehouse pickers. 15:03 Many companies have even replaced most of their human resources departments with AI. 15:08 In these companies, artificial intelligence handles recruitment, first-round job interviews, 15:13 employee orientations, performance evaluations, and deciding who to layoff. As an added touch, 15:19 some corporations even use artificial intelligence to layoff employees in Metaverse 15:25 environments—almost entirely removing the human element from these life-changing situations. 15:31 Other departments within companies such as finance, 15:33 legal, sales, marketing, and customer service have also changed forever. 15:38 The only people who are relatively safe from having 15:40 their jobs taken over by AI are the following: • Those in the top 5 – 10% of their occupations 15:46 • People in careers requiring high levels of creativity, empathy, and dexterity. 15:51 • People who are well-connected • The people who create the AI 15:55 This is a trend that will only escalate toward the end of the century. 15:59 13. Virtual Assistants Have Largely Replaced Search Engines 16:03 Well before 2050, most people on earth have access to a pervasive virtual assistant. The same virtual 16:09 assistant can be available as an augmented reality hologram, virtual reality character, 16:14 and household robot. And the same virtual assistant can be available as a voice 16:18 in a smart home, inside a vehicle, from a smartwatch, and from a smartphone. 16:24 By this point, language models similar to GPT-3 are exponentially more advanced and 16:29 virtual assistants are built on these language model platforms. 16:32 These virtual assistants are trained on text data from the majority of websites and publications 16:37 ever created in human history. So they can answer almost any question we ask to them. 16:42 And their answers are personalized based on our goals, interests, and career paths. 16:47 They constantly predict what we might want to do next and make suggestions throughout 16:51 each day instead of us having to type phrases into search engines. 16:55 Whenever we do search for information, they always make additional suggestions 16:59 that are vaguely related to our queries to help us get helpful perspectives we never considered. 17:04 We can also customize the personalities, appearances, 17:07 voices, and special abilities of these virtual assistants. 17:10 In the coming decades, 17:11 artificial general intelligence will take this technology to another level. 17:16 14. The Average Person Has Access To Quantum Computing Technology 17:20 For the past 10 – 15 years, tech companies have offered quantum computing technology 17:26 with their cloud services at a moderate to high cost. Personal computers and servers 17:32 also contain a hybrid of classical and quantum computing technology or one of 17:36 those technologies. Quantum technology is usually considerably more expensive. 17:40 Companies and 17:41 individuals use quantum technology to: • Model the interactions of molecules and atoms 17:45 • Invent new materials • Create complex virtual objects that 17:49 are difficult for humans to conceive • Develop potent smart drugs 17:53 • Develop high-range electric vehicle batteries that make gasoline-based vehicles obsolete 17:58 Some organizations are using the most advanced quantum computers in the world 18:02 to closely simulate processes of the human brain. This is making the 18:06 transferring of memories from humans to machines a real possibility. These 18:10 simulations are helping artificial general intelligence become a reality as well 18:14 One major downside to all of this is that some individuals have begun using quantum-enabled AI 18:19 to create fake videos that are completely indistinguishable 18:23 from reality. They’re nearly impossible to detect without expensive 18:27 generative adversarial networks trained on high levels of computational power. 18:33 15. CRISPR And Gene Therapies Are Minimizing Severe Diseases 18:37 Technologies and approaches such as: • CRISPR 18:39 • Gene Therapies • 3D printed organs and blood vessels 18:42 • Nanoparticles • Nanorobotics 18:45 Are minimizing and curing major diseases 18:47 in ways that were unthinkable only a couple of decades earlier. 18:50 5-year survival rates have reached close to 100% 18:54 for certain forms of cancer including colon cancer. 18:58 Other diseases that are significantly mitigated include AIDS, Ebola, blindness, 19:03 sickle cell anemia, heart disease, and more. 19:06 16. AI-Enabled Warfare Is Now Possible 19:10 For the past couple of decades, it’s been possible to fight an entire war 19:14 using only fully autonomous robots and vehicles. But, capabilities have reached a new level. 19:19 A swarm of ten thousand drones can be deployed with a cost as little as $10 million. 19:24 An AI-controlled hypersonic missile can travel to the other side of the globe in two hours 19:30 and out-maneuver conventional defensive systems. 19:33 Fully autonomous robots with near-perfect aim have replaced 19:36 a high percentage of human soldiers in the major militaries around the world. 19:40 No human with conventional weapons would stand a chance against these machines, which also have the 19:45 ability to heal themselves using nanotechnology. For the most delicate missions, these robots 19:51 can also be controlled by soldiers wearing virtual reality headsets in nearby locations. 19:56 Most of today’s jet fighters are fully autonomous as well. A combination of powerful AI, 20:02 swarming behavior, hypersonic speed, and near-perfect target recognition systems 20:07 enables near-instantaneous effects throughout combat areas. 20:12 Network-centric warfare and collision avoidance systems enable squadrons of 20:17 autonomous aircraft to synchronize, attack from multiple directions, and regroup in seconds. 20:23 Due to their inhuman reaction times and improved 20:26 weaponry, no human pilot would stand a chance against this type of enemy. 20:31 Even routine ground maintenance is done mostly by robots. 20:36 17. Light-Based Computer Chips Are Mainstream In 2050, the majority of computer processors, 20:42 storage devices, memory chips, graphics cards, and motherboards use a combination 20:47 of both light and electricity to optimize performance for certain scenarios. The main 20:52 advantage of light-based computer chips is that they are faster and 20:55 more efficient for certain AI calculations. That’s because information can be encoded 21:00 more efficiently in different wavelengths of light, and because controlling light 21:04 requires less power than controlling the flow of electrons with transistors. 21:09 Technologies that process data using light include: 21:11 • Self-driving cars • Advanced robots 21:14 • Quantum computers • VR glasses 21:16 • Brain-computer interfaces 21:18 Light-based computer chips 21:19 also provide the following advantages: • They process neural networks that are several 21:23 orders of magnitude larger than electricity-based chips can and they can process those neural 21:28 networks millions of times more efficiently. • They can carry out the mathematical 21:32 computations needed for AI and machine learning at the speed of light. That’s up to 5 to 10 21:37 times faster than electricity-based AI chips. • They use one-sixth of the power consumption 21:43 of electricity-based chips. • And they can process multiple, 21:46 complex AI algorithms at a time enabling considerably more complex actions in real-time. 21:51 Additionally, these chips are able to permanently store memory 21:52 and data, which was difficult to accomplish three decades ago. 21:52 18. The Cost Of Energy Is Incredibly Cheap By the early 2040s, much of the developed 21:58 world and some developing countries are primarily powered by solar and wind. The 22:02 cost of solar energy dropped 82% from 2010 to 2020, while the cost of wind energy dropped 22:08 46 percent. The costs of these energy sources are now one-quarter of the cost from the early 2020s. 22:15 One major reason for the lower energy costs is the growing usage of surplus energy 22:20 generated by solar panels and wind turbines that would have otherwise been wasted. This 22:26 surplus energy is stored and re-routed to be used for non-time-sensitive applications 22:31 such as charging batteries of parked cars, removing salt from saltwater, waste recycling, and 22:37 metal refining. Not only did the costs of energy drop, the costs for anything that relies on that 22:44 energy dropped as well—that includes the cost of water, materials, manufacturing, and computation. 22:51 Continent-wide super grids are also starting to emerge. These super grids allow nations to 22:56 share surplus clean energy from abundant sources and distribute it to the regions most in need. 23:02 By cooperating in this way, it’s possible to greatly reduce waste and optimize 23:06 power supplies on a continent-wide scale, at all times of the year. 23:10 Additionally, lithium-ion battery storage costs dropped 87% from 2010 to 2020 and it 23:18 continued to drop afterward due to the massive production of batteries for electric vehicles. 23:23 Another positive to all of this is that using clean energy sources eliminates more than 50 23:28 percent of all greenhouse gas emissions, which is by far the largest culprit of climate change. 23:34 19. Decentralized Autonomous Organizations Are Disrupting The Entertainment Industry 23:40 A Decentralized Autonomous Organization or DAO is a community-led 23:45 entity with no central authority. It’s an organization that is governed entirely by 23:50 its individual members who collectively make critical decisions about its future. 23:55 For many years, Decentralized Autonomous Organizations have disrupted multiple 23:59 industries and that’s especially the case for the entertainment industry. 24:03 Since well before 2050, entire media properties similar to Star Wars and Harry Potter are 24:09 comprised of organized systems of NFTs and partially owned by decentralized communities. 24:14 Those communities control narratives, storylines, character development, character appearance, 24:20 actor and actress selection, and so on. Some of these communities have millions of members. 24:25 Voting mechanisms allow them to vote on factors of varying granularity as well. 24:30 Movies, video games, novels, comic books, and more related to those media properties 24:36 are sold and financed by these communities. Celebrities and talented names in the 24:40 entertainment industry have also endorsed this practice and taken part in it as well. 24:45 Although there was a rough start for several years, 24:48 many of the products under these media properties are now at a higher quality 24:51 level and even more enjoyable than what big, corporate studios are offering. 24:56 All of these data transactions take place on a blockchain. Web 4.0, like its predecessor Web 3.0, 25:02 enables individuals to claim partial ownership of these media properties. 25:07 20. Most Digital Transactions Use Blockchain Technology 25:11 A blockchain is a shared database that allows multiple parties to access data and verify that 25:16 data in real-time. Since the late-2030s, most digital transactions of all types have been on 25:22 a blockchain. Blockchain technology has become a bedrock to society almost as much as electricity, 25:27 the internet, and artificial intelligence. • Cryptocurrencies are based on blockchain 25:30 technology. In 2050, the average person uses cryptocurrencies on 25:34 a normal basis because of their ease to use, increased security, 25:38 and protection against inflation. • Data transfers between Earth and 25:42 Mars are primarily conducted using blockchain technology. Investors on Earth can gain partial 25:47 ownership of a water production facility on Mars. And content and apps made on Mars are able to go 25:53 viral on Earth. It only takes 5 to 20 minutes for data to transmit between Mars and Earth, depending 25:59 on their planetary positions around the sun. • Blockchain technology is helping to combat 26:04 deep fakes. That’s because every device with a camera is starting to gain the option 26:08 to authenticate photos and videos and place them on the blockchain. Because of this, 26:13 any photo or video loaded to a trusted website source must show its blockchain authentication. 26:18 • And In many countries, blockchain technology is ensuring that elections are more secure and 26:23 transparent by assigning an id to each vote and easily keeping track of those votes. 26:29 Thanks for watching. Make sure to watch this next video about future technologies in the year 2060