Future Business Tech2021.11.9---2040 年的世界：20 大未來技術

0:00 in 2040 the world will look dramatically 0:02 different due to multiple technological 0:03 advancements for example the metaverse 0:05 would become fundamental to everyday 0:07 life by 2040 multiple large tech 0:09 companies will make significant 0:10 contributions to the metaveers and 0:12 metaphors regain widespread appeal among 0:14 people of most age groups and 0:15 demographics more than likely the 0:17 average person will use the metaverse 0:19 and hardware components associated with 0:20 it as much as people use the internet 0:22 and smartphones today the average person 0:24 in 2040 could have a highly detailed and 0:27 realistic 3d avatar with several preset 0:29 outfits along with hundreds or thousands 0:31 of individual clothing items to choose 0:33 from they could have a decorated 3d home 0:35 space containing doorways to their 0:37 bookmarked metaverse worlds and they 0:39 could have a 3d virtual work environment 0:41 with a custom arrangement of apps that 0:43 are tailored to work optimally in the 0:44 metaphors environment digital assets 0:46 could be accessible across multiple 0:48 devices such as virtual reality assets 0:50 augmented reality glasses smartphones 0:52 smart watches and so on and those assets 0:54 could be accessible in multiple apps 0:56 that were typically considered unrelated 0:58 to each other in earlier decades there 1:00 could be a wide variety of virtual 1:01 environments in the metaverse they these 1:03 serve a different use case beyond just 1:04 entertainment those use cases would 1:06 include fitness education job and career 1:09 training product demonstrations virtual 1:11 keynote speeches marketplaces to buy 1:13 virtual and physical items and more 1:15 additionally we could have 1:16 user-generated location-specific 1:18 holograms overlaid in most major cities 1:20 and institutions to provide navigation 1:22 reviews and 3d animations of past events 1:25 number two brain computer interfaces 1:27 could become mainstream technologies and 1:29 futurist ray kurzweil predicted that in 1:31 the mid-2030s rika began connecting the 1:33 human neocortex to the cloud by 2040 1:36 that prediction could come true bring 1:38 computer interfaces could vastly improve 1:41 over the versions from 2030 and they 1:43 could be largely usable for everyday 1:44 purposes they could also become standard 1:46 accessories for virtual reality headsets 1:48 including high priced vr helmets that 1:50 offer full dive vr experiences and some 1:52 brain computer interfaces could be fully 1:54 implantable for medical purposes when it 1:56 comes to entertainment people can use 1:58 brain computer interfaces to control 1:59 objects in real games and virtual 2:01 environments with high reasonable 2:03 accuracy video game studios could begin 2:05 to integrate this technology into their 2:06 video games for example the ability to 2:09 control objects with your thoughts would 2:10 be particularly relevant in the star 2:12 wars game where you play jedis and siths 2:14 with force abilities and in the matrix 2:16 game where you play as the one however 2:18 bank appeared in interfaces could make 2:20 the most substantial impact when it 2:22 comes to serving those with spinal cord 2:23 injuries whereby patients can regain 2:25 more control and control over their 2:27 senses number three lifelike virtual 2:29 assistance could become mainstream by 2:31 2040 each person could have access to a 2:33 digital virtual assistant by this point 2:35 language models similar to gpc3 while 2:37 exponentially more advanced and virtual 2:39 assistants could be built on those 2:41 language model platforms these virtual 2:43 assistants could be trained on text data 2:44 and maybe even the image data from the 2:46 majority of websites and publications 2:48 ever created in human history so they 2:50 could be able to answer almost any 2:52 question we asked to them and their 2:54 answers could be personalized based on 2:56 our goals interests and career paths 2:58 they could constantly predict what we 2:59 might want to do next and make 3:01 suggestions throughout each day instead 3:02 of us having to type phrases into search 3:04 engines and they could be represented as 3:06 3d virtual characters that we can 3:08 contact for most virtual environments 3:09 and in the form of holograms when using 3:11 augmented reality devices these virtual 3:13 characters could have their own complex 3:15 and unique personalities appearances 3:17 voices and special abilities that we can 3:19 customize as needed number four level 3:21 five autonomous vehicles could emerge by 3:23 2040 autonomous vehicles could operate 3:25 without human intervention at all 3:27 however the main factor that would 3:29 accelerate this development would be 3:30 cities and districts that are 3:31 specifically built to support level 5 3:34 autonomous vehicles this could involve 3:35 delegating specific parts of the city 3:37 for autonomous vehicles and specific 3:39 parts for pedestrians to reduce the 3:41 chance of accidents it could also 3:42 involve building walls embedded with 3:44 sensors so that the location of each 3:46 autonomous vehicle is tracked in an 3:47 interconnected network and as these 3:49 types of networks evolve they would 3:51 track all vehicles stop lights street 3:53 conditions and more to form the basis of 3:56 the world's first smart cities number 3:57 five quantum computers could become 3:59 available to the mainstream public both 4:01 via the cloud and as physical units this 4:03 advancement could revolutionize how we 4:05 solve optimization problems train and 4:07 run machine learning algorithms and 4:08 better understand the physical processes 4:10 of nature down to the subatomic level 4:12 the industry that could get the most 4:13 benefit from it are finance 4:15 pharmaceuticals cyber security and 4:17 material science number six artificial 4:19 intelligence could take over the 4:21 education industry by 2040 ai could take 4:23 over significant parts of the education 4:25 system ai teachers could start to emerge 4:28 where students can access using virtual 4:30 reality and augmented reality devices ai 4:32 teachers could offer personalized 4:34 education based on information provided 4:36 to them and based on verbal and physical 4:38 cues for example an ai teacher can 4:40 notice what makes a student's people's 4:42 dilate and alter the way it teaches to 4:44 keep that student engaged if a student 4:46 loves basketball ai teachers could 4:48 rewrite math and english problems so 4:49 that those problems are tailored to the 4:51 basketball domain and ai could give a 4:54 different homework assignment to each 4:55 student based on his or her pace ai 4:57 teachers will lower all basic costs in 4:59 the educational system and allow more 5:01 people to access high quality and 5:03 standardized education and in wealthy 5:05 communities human teachers can take on 5:07 fewer students in order to become their 5:09 personal mentors and coaches number 5:11 seven service robots could number a 5:13 billion worldwide by the mid-2030s the 5:16 number of service robots could reach 1 5:17 billion worldwide and continue to grow 5:20 rapidly service robots could be 5:21 generally divided into two separate 5:23 groups personal and professional types 5:25 of personal robots would include vacuum 5:27 cleaners lawn mowers toys personal 5:29 mobility machines and pet exercise 5:31 robots professional service robots would 5:34 be used for commercial purposes and 5:35 normally operated and monitored by 5:37 properly trained personnel examples can 5:39 include medical robots performing 5:41 surgical operations firefighting robots 5:43 automated security patrols machines to 5:46 clean public places delivery robots and 5:48 so on industrial robots would also play 5:50 a big part in society especially when it 5:52 comes to manufacturing but they'll be 5:54 nowhere as numerous as the first two 5:55 types at this stage most robots can 5:58 instantly recognize and interact with 5:59 countless objects while providing 6:01 real-time information to customers and 6:03 because of these robots manufacturing 6:05 jobs in the united states would have 6:07 largely disappeared all this could be 6:09 made possible due to exponential 6:10 improvements in machine learning cloud 6:12 computing bandwidth sensor technology 6:15 and so on number eight the first 6:16 permanent lunar base could be 6:18 established by the later half of the 6:20 1930s government and private ventures 6:22 could create a permanent human presence 6:24 on the moon this milestone would be 6:26 partially motivated by the planned 6:27 development of the asteroid mining 6:29 industry which could generate trillions 6:30 of dollars of revenues over the coming 6:32 decades 3d printing will make the 6:34 construction of this luna base much 6:35 cheaper and easier than alternative 6:37 methods new tools spare parts and 6:39 components for entire buildings could be 6:41 forced using rock and dust on the moon's 6:43 surface this lunar base could be led by 6:45 nasa with contributions from the 6:47 european space agency canadian space 6:49 agency and various private companies 6:51 china may also prepare its own separate 6:52 lunar base in collaboration with russia 6:55 number nine hypersonic airliners could 6:57 enter service following decades of 6:59 research and development a new 7:00 generation of airliners can enter 7:02 commercial service this aircraft could 7:04 have a cruising speed of mach 5 which is 7:06 more than 7 times faster than the 7:08 typical passenger jet and 5 times the 7:10 speed of sound hypersonic planes can fly 7:12 from new york to california in 30 7:14 minutes and they can fly from new york 7:16 to london in under 4 hours their 7:18 advantages are numerous they can be 7:19 lighter than boeing 747s and utilize 7:22 conventional runways additionally they 7:24 would make moderate takeoff noise the 7:26 only disadvantage is that they would lag 7:28 windows because windows would be too 7:29 heavy for this type of aircraft one 7:31 solution to this problem could be the 7:33 installation of flash screen displays 7:34 that show footage of the world outside 7:36 number 10 crispr and gene therapies 7:38 could greatly minimize diseases 7:40 technologies and approaches such as 7:42 crispr gene therapies 3d printed organs 7:44 and blood vessels nanoparticles and 7:46 nanorobots could minimize diseases in 7:48 ways that were unthinkable only a couple 7:50 of decades earlier a vast range of 7:51 infectious diseases including aids and 7:53 ebola could become curable genetic 7:56 elements like sickle cell amenia and 7:58 certain forms of blindness could become 7:59 curable as well five year survival rates 8:02 could reach 100 for certain forms of 8:04 cancer and heart disease thanks to gene 8:06 therapy and animal deaths from 8:07 cardiovascular disease could reach 8:09 negligible levels in the u.s number 11 8:12 moon and asteroid mining could become a 8:14 routine practice by 2040 the utilization 8:17 of space resources such as metals and 8:19 minerals from the moon and asteroids 8:20 could become the next big thing in 8:22 commercial space ventures it could also 8:24 become a major growth area in terms of 8:26 innovation and wealth creation by 2040 8:28 asteroid mining could account for only a 8:30 tiny fraction of global commodities 8:32 however it's widely expected to comprise 8:34 a substantial percentage of the 8:36 commodities market in the coming decades 8:38 thanks to moon and asteroid mining an 8:40 unrestrained hype in the stock market a 8:41 well-known american business tycoon 8:43 could become the world's first 8:44 trillionaire before 2040. number 12 8:47 carbon nanotubes could begin production 8:49 after decades of research new process 8:51 could be developed for synthesizing 8:53 carbon nanotubes carbon nanotubes are 8:56 tubes made of carbon with diameters at 8:58 the nanometer scale a nanotube can 9:00 consist of either a single sheet of 9:02 carbon atoms or multiple layers of wrap 9:04 to form a hollow core these structures 9:06 can reach potentially thousands of miles 9:08 in length they're also capable of being 9:10 hundreds of times stronger than steel 9:12 the use cases for carbon nanotubes are 9:14 numerous they include bulletproof vest 9:16 water resistant clothing lightweight 9:18 composites for automobiles planes and 9:20 spacecraft radiation shield materials 9:23 next generation materials for 9:24 transistors and water purification some 9:27 people could even say that it makes a 9:28 space elevator possible as well number 9:31 thirteen the first zetta scale 9:32 supercomputer could be operational in 9:34 2040 a supercomputer at the zelda scale 9:37 would be 1 million times more powerful 9:39 than the fastest supercomputer in the 9:40 early 2020s this system would be data 9:43 centric meaning it would be optimized to 9:45 handle extremely large volumes of data 9:47 it could also be decentralized meaning 9:49 it would be comprised of millions of 9:50 less powerful components length and 9:52 working together to form a collective 9:53 hyper-computer that is more powerful 9:55 than any single machine number 14 the 9:58 einstein telescope could be operational 10:00 the einstein telescope is a third 10:02 generation gravitational wave 10:04 observatory developed by research 10:05 institutions in the european union it 10:07 has 10 times the sensitivity of any 10:09 previous instrument which greatly 10:11 increases the distance at which black 10:13 hole collisions neutron stars dark 10:15 matter and other gravitational wave 10:16 sources can be analyzed it would also 10:18 improve tests of einstein's general 10:20 theory of relativity additionally the 10:22 previous generation of gravitational 10:24 wave observatories only studied the 10:26 universe at the 10 billion light years 10:28 distance the einstein telescope is able 10:31 to look even further back in time to 10:32 what they call the cosmic dark ages when 10:34 the first stars and galaxies began to 10:36 form number 15 robots could dominate the 10:39 battlefield highly mobile autonomous 10:41 fighting machines could be deployed with 10:43 the majority of frontline military 10:44 personnel because of their advanced 10:46 machine vision they could aim with 10:47 inhuman precision and they could have 10:49 superior situational awareness due to 10:51 their powerful sensors gps and thermal 10:53 vision no human would have any chance of 10:55 defeating it using conventional 10:57 approaches and these machines can be 10:58 deployed for weeks or months at a time 11:00 if necessary without the need for 11:02 maintenance number 16 space-based solar 11:05 power could become commercially feasible 11:07 by 2040 energy generated from 11:09 space-based solar power could be added 11:11 to many power grids this system involves 11:13 placing several large satellites into 11:15 earth's orbit each satellite would have 11:17 a large nanotech based surface for a 11:19 solar array that is almost two miles in 11:21 size these solar arrays will capture the 11:23 energy of the sunlight which is then 11:25 beamed down to earth via lasers large 11:27 collecting dishes on the ground would 11:29 receive the energy and convert it to 11:30 usable electricity one major advantage 11:32 to this approach is the fact that these 11:34 satellites can be exposed to sunlight 24 11:36 7 instead of just 12 hours a day like 11:39 ground-based panels because of space 11:41 debris the panels would require high 11:43 strength shielding also some of the 11:45 high-tech panels could use a 11:46 nanotechnology-based composite to 11:48 self-heal whenever damage occurs it's 11:50 expected that these types of satellites 11:52 could appear in orbit around the moon 11:53 and mars to provide energy to human 11:55 bases and over the next two centuries 11:57 enough of these satellites could 11:59 eventually orbit the earth so that 12:01 virtually all of the sunlight is 12:02 captured and harvested in some way this 12:04 is also an important step for humanity 12:06 to become a type 1 civilization a type 1 12:09 civilization can use and store all of 12:11 the energy available on this planet 12:13 number 17 deep ocean mining operations 12:16 will likely become commonplace thanks to 12:18 advances in robotics it would be 12:19 possible to mine for materials on the 12:21 ocean floor by 2040 prospecting and 12:23 unseat construction will be done using 12:25 fleets of automated and remote 12:26 controlled robots when ships or mining 12:29 platforms are positioned above an area 12:30 of interest resources will be brought to 12:32 the surface through hydraulic suction or 12:34 continuous bucket line systems the 12:36 primary focus of these operations would 12:38 be to obtain rare earth metals to be 12:40 used as materials for a wide range of 12:42 electronics and other high-tech 12:43 applications if there are global 12:45 shortages in 2040 these resources could 12:47 be on the same level of strategic 12:49 importance as oil and natural gas from 12:52 earlier decades another available 12:54 although hazardous target of deep ocean 12:56 mining is methane hydrate methane 12:58 hydrate is the largest natural gas 12:59 resource on planet earth deposits for 13:02 methane hydrate consists of concentrated 13:04 methane trapped within crystals of 13:06 frozen water japan china and the united 13:08 states have already established the 13:10 largest mining operations to mine for 13:12 this energy source number 18 fusion 13:14 power could become commercially 13:16 available the world's largest 13:17 fusion-powered project known as the 13:19 international thermonuclear experimental 13:21 reactor has become functional in the 13:23 mid-2030s it could produce a sustained 13:25 output of 500 million watts which is 13:27 comparable to the energy output of a 13:29 typical power plant the advantages of 13:31 fusion power are that is inexpensive and 13:33 abundant in nature and the amount of 13:35 long-term radioactive waste and 13:36 greenhouse gases produced throughout 13:38 fusion are minimal additionally by 2040 13:41 a new experimental reactor called spark 13:43 could be developed by mit and a spinoff 13:45 company called commonwealth fusion 13:47 systems number 19 the very large hadron 13:49 collider could become operational by 13:51 smashing particles together in high 13:53 energy collisions it's possible to 13:55 recreate the conditions in the earliest 13:56 moments of the universe the higher the 13:58 energy the further back in time 14:00 researchers can simulate and more likely 14:01 it is that exotic interactions could be 14:04 observed the very large hadron collider 14:06 will be the successor to the large 14:08 hadron collider and it could be built in 14:09 the mid-2030s its accelerated ring will 14:12 be about 62 miles around and it would 14:14 run at seven times the energy of the 14:16 large hadron collider the purpose of it 14:18 is to vastly improve our knowledge about 14:19 the higgs boson particle dark matter 14:21 dark energy and strength theory in the 14:23 long run this new collider could help 14:25 with the development of pickle 14:26 technology which enables technological 14:28 manipulation of matter that is three 14:30 orders of magnitude smaller than 14:32 nanotechnology number 20 the high 14:34 definition space telescope could be 14:36 operational by 2040 the high definition 14:38 space telescope would be designed to 14:40 locate dozens of earth-like planets in 14:42 our solar interstellar neighborhood 14:44 which is just a small section of our 14:45 milky way galaxy the high definition 14:47 space telescope would be 100 times more 14:50 sensitive than the hubble telescope and 14:52 it would be equipped with an internal 14:54 coronal graph a disc that blocks light 14:56 from a central star in the solar system 14:58 which makes it dark and hard to see 15:00 planet more visible in that solar system 15:02 it's also expected to take photos of the 15:04 planets and moons in our own solar 15:06 system with spectacular resolution and 15:08 detail thanks for watching make sure to 15:10 watch this next video about future 15:11 technologies in the year 2050.